CAPTAIN SEEKS VOTES: Crowd cheering Vijayakanth at a junction near Chidambaram.
The major political parties are suddenly beginning to sit up and take notice of actor-turned-politician Vijayakanth and his fledgling Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK).
Initially of the view that people were lining up for him just "out of curiosity", political managers in both the major alliances are now wracking their brains to calculate what percentage of the vote he will take away.
A conservative estimate they have arrived at is five per cent. "Though it may not be enough to win him many seats, it is something to think about. By going it alone, the actor may be anchoring himself for the future," says a senior Bharatiya Janata Party functionary. The BJP anticipated some following for him and even toyed with the idea of an alliance, but Mr. Vijayakanth did not respond positively. It may be up to the DMDK to find out if it can win any seats and make a debut in the State Assembly in its very first year — the party was launched in September 2005 — but the other parties are busy trying to estimate the possible impact the DMDK candidates may have.
According to Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam managers, a mere 5 per cent vote share need not convert into seats. They are quick to point out that the Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK) already has a nearly five per cent share, but is yet to make a debut in the Assembly, though it has repeatedly won elections to the Lok Sabha in alliance with either the AIADMK or the DMK. "Just five per cent of the vote is not enough to win on your own. But that may be useful in an alliance and the new party will also gain from say a 30 per cent bank that the two Dravidian parties have by themselves," explains a poll analyst.
The question, therefore, is, which vote is the DMDK cutting into. Are its potential voters more inclined to support the AIADMK, the DMK or one of the national parties such as the Congress or the BJP? sSources close to Mr. Vijayakanth say, "The people who are supporting us, who will vote for us, are those who want an alternative in Tamil Nadu. They are tired of the two major Dravidian parties. They find a breath of fresh air in our leader's approach to people and issues. Mr. Vijayakanth is not looking at just this election. He is in for the long haul. Let us see what happens on May 8."
Information from the southern districts seems to indicate that the DMDK may cut into the AIADMK alliance because of "local rivalry" between the party and the MDMK and its leader Vaiko.
DMDK functionaries say that those who oppose Mr. Vaiko's alliance with the AIADMK, are likely to favour their candidates. But it could be different in the rest of the State. For instance, in the northern belt, the new party may eat into the traditional vote base of the DMK, the PMK and the Dalit Panthers. It may not be too late for the AIADMK to work out some understanding with Mr. Vijayakanth.
At the moment at least, it does not appear to be a caste-based party. Those inclined to support it are either those "disillusioned" with the existing parties and searching for an alternative, or the new generation of voters looking for a change in the political system. If the DMDK is able to garner a five per cent or more vote share in the May elections, it may have arrived on the political scene, at least as a "useful ally" for one of the major fronts.
Source : www.hindu.com
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